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GDP Data Release
Official figures confirm a slower-than-expected 1.4% growth rate.
Black Friday
Initial reports show mixed consumer turnout and heavy reliance on discounts.
Q4 Begins
Retailers enter the quarter with high inventory expectations.
The US economy expanded at a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, missing economist forecasts and signaling a significant cooling in consumer activity. For the retail and e-commerce sectors, this deceleration during the critical holiday window suggests a shift toward price sensitivity and cautious discretionary spending.
February consumer sentiment data reveals a growing divide in the US economy, with stock market gains fueling optimism among high-earners while lower-income households face declining confidence. This bifurcated sentiment suggests a challenging environment for mass-market retailers even as luxury and high-end discretionary spending remains resilient.
While headline inflation shows signs of moderation, the retail sector is grappling with persistent operational costs and the looming threat of new tariffs. The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rates continues to pressure inventory financing and consumer discretionary spending.